Predictive Modeling of Patient Waiting Times in the Emergency Room Using Supervised Learning
Abstract
Long waiting times in hospital emergency rooms affect both patient satisfaction and the use of resources. This study builds a machine-learning framework to predict ER waiting times from 5,000 patient encounters, engineering features such as patient acuity, staffing ratios and time-of-day and seasonal effects. Linear models, tree-based ensembles and support vector machines were compared with 5-fold cross-validation on MAE, RMSE and R². A hyperparameter-tuned stacked ensemble performed best, reaching R² = 0.9473 — a validated, data-driven tool to help hospital administrators manage resources proactively and communicate better with patients.


